The highly anticipated Super Bowl LVIII showdown between the Chiefs and the 49ers is finally here, offering a rematch from Super Bowl LIV. While the excitement may be primarily felt among residents of Kansas City or San Francisco and scattered Taylor Swift fans across the nation, for the gambling enthusiasts, it marks the final pick of the 2023-2024 season.
Chiefs vs. 49ers (-2): Patrick Mahomes boasts an impressive playoff record, having played in 17 career playoff games, with remarkable passing stats and an enviable 14-3 record. The Chiefs, despite appearing mortal at times during the regular season, demonstrated their prowess across all phases, ranking among the top quarter of the league in DVOA. Their dominant performance in the playoffs, handling tough opponents like the Bills and the Ravens on the road, underscores their championship caliber.
On the other hand, the 49ers’ journey to the Super Bowl was less convincing, with underwhelming performances against the Packers and the Lions. While Brock Purdy has shown flashes of brilliance, inconsistency remains a concern.
Despite some matchup advantages favoring the 49ers, such as their rushing offense against the Chiefs’ run defense, or their edge rushers against the Chiefs’ offensive tackles, scrutinizing these matchups too closely may be overthinking it. The Chiefs are peaking at the right time, while the 49ers seem to be faltering.
With trust in Mahomes and Andy Reid at its peak, and skepticism towards Purdy and Kyle Shanahan, the Chiefs are favored to win, even with a 2-point spread.
• Picks against the spread: Chiefs (+2).
• 2023 season, straight up: 177-109 (0.619)
• 2023 season, ATS: 49-48-6 (0.505)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 9 years, ATS: 394-339-19 (0.537)
