Leicester City Must Heed Relegation Lesson if Enticing £45m Transfer is Proposed

No matter how much research managers do before joining new clubs—watching old matches or analyzing stats—they can’t truly assess the players they’re inheriting until they’re on the training pitch with them.

This is true for Steve Cooper at Leicester City and for Enzo Maresca now at Chelsea. After a few weeks of overseeing his new squad in the capital, it’s clear Maresca wants a new goalkeeper, which is troubling.

For now, the plan is for Maresca to install Robert Sanchez as Chelsea’s number one this season, but he also wants someone to challenge and push him. Given that Mads Hermansen was his first-choice goalkeeper target at City, Maresca will likely suggest Chelsea consider the Dane.

When Maresca moved to Stamford Bridge, Hermansen was predicted to be the top player from City he might bring along, even more so than Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

Having a goalkeeper who is both talented and composed with the ball at his feet is crucial to Maresca’s style of play. Based on the quality of players he was inheriting versus those he was leaving behind, Hermansen seemed like an easy upgrade.

So, how much would the 24-year-old cost if Chelsea came calling? Over the weekend, it was reported that City values the Dane at £45m. For those not closely following the club, this might seem steep for a goalkeeper who cost just £6.5m a year ago, even though he earned a spot in the Championship team of the season.

However, City fans might argue that £45m is not enough. One key lesson from their last relegation is the importance of a good goalkeeper. A good keeper can be the difference between staying up and going down, which is worth far more than £45m.

Looking at the statistics for the 22-23 season, the worst-performing keepers by the measure of post-shot expected goals—how likely shots on target will find the net based on the league average—were Gavin Bazunu, Illan Meslier, Dean Henderson, and Danny Ward. Among them are the number ones for the three relegated teams: Southampton, Leeds, and City.

Henderson didn’t get his place back at Nottingham Forest after an injury, playing only half the season. Keylor Navas finished the campaign in goal, and Forest stayed up, which seems decisive.

According to the data, City were expected to concede 55 goals from the shots on target they faced, which was only the sixth-worst in the division. They actually conceded 68 goals. Meanwhile, Everton was expected to concede 60 goals but let in 57 with Jordan Pickford in goal.

Entering this season with Hermansen addresses this issue. He is not only excellent with his feet but also excels at keeping the ball out of the net. No keeper in the Championship performed as well as Hermansen did by that metric last season; he prevented six more goals than he was expected to concede.

City could probably sign a very good goalkeeper and have money to spare by selling Hermansen for £45m. But there are no guarantees that a new keeper would fit in at City, as good players often flop at new clubs.

With Hermansen, City has guarantees. They have a year of evidence that he’s capable of handling the pressure of being a number one, that he works well with the defenders, and that he fits in with the group as a whole.

In short, keeping Hermansen is their safest bet. While a big offer would be tempting given the potential profit, City needs to show they’ve learned from their relegation two seasons ago. Rejecting advances for Hermansen and keeping him as their number one would be evidence that they’ve understood and addressed one of their key issues.