The Points West Ham Need for European Qualification Could Surprise Lopetegui in This Wide-Open Season

If you need evidence that West Ham United hired Julen Lopetegui to guide them back into European football, just examine the terms of his contract.

 

The Hammers brought in the Spanish manager on a two-year deal.

 

However, if West Ham qualifies for any UEFA competition within that period, an automatic one-year extension will be triggered, turning the deal into a three-year tenure.

 

With just three wins in their first 11 Premier League games this season, it seemed as though aspirations of European qualification were fading fast.

 

But Monday night’s brilliant 2-0 victory at Newcastle has revived West Ham’s season and reignited hopes.

 

While the performance was a breath of fresh air, fans and pundits alike remain cautious, waiting to see if this impressive win is more than just a one-off.

 

Yet, the way West Ham executed their game plan was undeniably commendable.

 

Should they maintain that level of play for the remainder of the season, they could well end up winning more matches than they lose.

 

In fact, the aftermath of the Newcastle victory revealed a surprising statistic: West Ham are now just four points adrift of sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur.

 

The question then arises: can the east London side realistically aim for a return to European football?

 

Points Needed for European Qualification

 

West Ham supporters have savored their recent European adventures, including last year’s unforgettable Europa Conference League triumph.

 

Following the Newcastle win, the question of European qualification was one of the first posed to Lopetegui during his pre-match press conference ahead of the Arsenal game.

Lopetegui, however, was quick to temper expectations.

 

“We don’t think about where we are now,” he said. “We think about where we can be in the next four months.

 

The end of the season is when we can talk about whether we did well or not – let’s see.

 

We have to be ready to be better in every match and to improve.”

 

Nevertheless, the points required to secure European football could surprise even Lopetegui, given how open this Premier League season has been.

 

November alone has seen 13 instances of lower-ranked teams defeating higher-placed opponents in the league.

 

Remarkably, almost half of the 30 matches played this month have resulted in the underdogs taking all three points.

 

A Wide-Open Premier League Season

 

As West Ham approach their clash with Arsenal, the season will soon reach its one-third mark.

 

Excluding league leaders Liverpool, the Premier League table is incredibly compact, providing opportunities for teams to climb the ranks in the final two-thirds of the campaign.

 

West Ham should aim to be one of those teams. The gap between second-placed Manchester City and fifth-placed Brighton is the smallest it has ever been at this stage of a Premier League season: just one point separates them.

 

The previous record for the narrowest margin after 12 games was two points, which has only happened three times before, including last season.

 

Interestingly, Manchester City are closer to West Ham in the table than they are to Liverpool above them.

 

Below City, three teams are tied on 22 points, further emphasizing how tightly packed the league is.

 

This situation leaves room for surprises in the race for the top four and, more realistically for West Ham, a strong shot at securing a Europa League or Conference League spot.

 

Points Required to Make Europe

 

Qualifying for the Champions League may be out of reach for West Ham this season, as it typically requires 70 to 75 points, meaning they would need to accumulate around 50 more points from the remaining 26 games.

 

This translates to 18 wins – a challenging but not entirely impossible task if they use their recent Newcastle win as a turning point.

 

However, a return to the Europa League or Conference League is a more achievable goal. Securing fifth place, which guarantees Europa League qualification, usually requires 60 to 65 points.

 

To reach that benchmark, West Ham would need the equivalent of 15 wins in their remaining fixtures.

 

That allows for up to 11 games without a win, making this target realistic with consistent performances.

 

Similarly, finishing sixth or seventh could be enough to return to European football, depending on domestic cup outcomes.

 

The points threshold for these positions is generally between 55 and 60.

 

Based on current points-per-game trends, seventh place this season might require just 57 points – achievable with 14 wins or the equivalent in points (e.g., 12 wins and six draws).

Consistency is Key

 

While Lopetegui remains measured in his approach, West Ham’s prospects for European qualification are far from a pipe dream.

 

Much will depend on how Premier League clubs fare in European competitions and the outcomes of domestic cups.

 

For instance, if a team outside the top six wins the FA Cup or Carabao Cup, they could claim a European spot, potentially affecting the qualification dynamics for league positions.

 

With the squad at Lopetegui’s disposal, achieving 57 points is within reach.

 

The team must maintain consistency and capitalize on opportunities against lower-ranked opponents.

 

If there were ever a season for West Ham to make a serious push for Europe, this wide-open Premier League campaign provides the perfect platform.

 

For now, Lopetegui is wise to play down expectations, focusing on incremental improvements rather than lofty targets.

 

But Monday night’s victory at Newcastle has shown what the team is capable of.

 

If West Ham can replicate that level of performance consistently, their fans could soon be dreaming of more European nights to savor.